How Low Can Liberal Support Fall?

New Poll Hits Historic Lows

A recent Angus Reid survey paints a grim picture for the federal Liberals, indicating that their support has plummeted to historic lows.

The poll, published Monday, shows the Liberals capturing only 16% of decided voters—placing them well behind the Conservatives (45%) and the NDP (21%), while edging out the Bloc Québécois (11%).

According to Angus Reid, this marks an unprecedented low in modern history for the party, which previously dipped below 30% in only three elections. In 1984, under John Turner, they received 28%. Stéphane Dion garnered 26.2% in 2008, and Michael Ignatieff led them to 18.9% in 2011. Even in pre-election polling leading up to 2011, support for the Liberals never fell below 17%.

This decline follows Chrystia Freeland’s unexpected exit from cabinet, with Liberal support dropping five points across demographics in recent weeks. The survey shows a significant shift among 2021 Liberal voters: 16% now back the Conservatives, 20% have moved to the NDP, and 12% remain undecided or plan not to vote.

If these numbers hold on election day, the Liberals could face catastrophic losses, potentially falling below the 12 seats needed to maintain official party status in the House of Commons.

The Angus Reid poll also highlights trouble for NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, whose unfavorable ratings have reached a record-high 58%.

For further details, the full survey can be read here.

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